Five Mid-Major Teams Set to Shake Up College Basketball in 2025-26

As the college basketball season approaches, analysts are on the hunt for the next mid-major team that will defy expectations and become a legitimate threat. These are the programs from outside the power conferences that are poised to make a significant leap, following the path of teams that have famously upset the NCAA Tournament bracket.

Here are five mid-major teams with the potential to surprise this season:

• Boise State: The Broncos, under coach Leon Rice, have consistently been a contender, but they’ve yet to secure a win in the NCAA Tournament. This year, they are poised to change that. With three of their top five scorers returning and the addition of key transfers like Dylan Andrews and Drew Fielder, Boise State has the talent to be a favorite in the Mountain West Conference and a dangerous team in March.
• Columbia: Following years of struggling to compete, the Columbia Lions are primed for a major turnaround. The program has hired Kevin Hovde, a coach with a proven track record, and is returning the bulk of its roster from last season. This infusion of new leadership and returning talent has some experts predicting a dramatic improvement, with the potential for 18 or more wins and a deep run in the Ivy League tournament.
• George Washington: Poised for its best season in a decade, George Washington is a team on the rise. Under fourth-year coach Chris Caputo, the Revolutionaries return four starters and have landed a standout transfer class, including several players who averaged double-digit scoring at their previous schools. This roster, bolstered by new talent, has the potential to bring the program back to the level of success it enjoyed in the early 2000s.
• San Diego State: The Aztecs have been a model of consistency, making five consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances and reaching the national championship game in 2023. This year, they are set to continue that success with a strong returning core led by two potential NBA draft picks: Miles Byrd and Magoon Gwath. With a challenging non-conference schedule, San Diego State will have plenty of opportunities to prove it is still one of the best mid-major programs in the country.
• Northern Iowa: Northern Iowa is a dark horse to watch, returning a significant portion of its minutes from last season’s squad. The team successfully fended off transfer portal threats to retain its three veteran starters, Trey Campbell, Max Weisbrod, and Ben Schwieger. With this experienced core, coupled with the return of talented players from injury, Northern Iowa has the potential to earn its first March Madness bid since 2016.