Predicting the Top Class: Who Will Win the 2026 College Basketball Recruiting Race?

College basketball recruiting is in an unusual place. As the fall semester begins, only a handful of the top-50 prospects from the Class of 2026 have committed to a school. Even traditional recruiting powerhouses like Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas have yet to land a single high school commitment.

This dearth of commitments is due to the evolving financial dynamics of college athletics. The recent House settlement has tightened budgets for many major programs, forcing them to prioritize spending on transfers who can make an immediate impact on the roster. This new financial reality could open the door for a new set of programs to challenge for recruiting supremacy.

Against this backdrop, our writers are making their picks for which program will finish atop the 2026 high school recruiting rankings.

The Contenders

Duke

Over the past two years, Duke has secured the best freshmen class in the country, and that trend is likely to continue. While the program may not be prioritizing future high school graduates in the same way they once did, the last time the Blue Devils failed to enroll at least three five-star freshmen in a single recruiting class was in 2019. It’s reasonable to assume Duke will land a top-ranked class.

Kansas

It has never been more difficult to forecast which program will finish with the No. 1 recruiting class. For the first time, a lack of commitments from top-100 players has led to a wonky set of team rankings. With that in mind, it’s a good bet that head coach Bill Self will once again manage to put together a top class. It’s expected that Kansas will land a five-star prospect within the next month, and a second and third top-40 player seems more than possible.

Kentucky

Second-year coach Mark Pope has a successful track record of building rosters through a blend of transfers and top-tier high school prospects. So far, the Wildcats appear to be a top contender for the No. 1 recruit, Tyran Stokes, along with several other blue-chip players. Given the program’s ample resources—which are considered to be among the most competitive in the NIL market—it’s unlikely Kentucky will be outbid for a player. The program is positioned to be a top contender for the No. 1 class, even while also focusing on veteran transfers.

Arkansas

No matter how much college basketball changes, John Calipari can’t quit the pursuit of top-tier freshmen. Recruiting McDonald’s All-Americans is an inexorable part of his coaching ethos, and that isn’t changing this cycle. The Razorbacks already have a commitment from five-star wing JJ Andrews, which puts them ahead of the curve. If anyone is savvy enough to navigate the financial workarounds required to fund a roster in this era, it’s Calipari. His first Arkansas recruiting class ranked No. 4, and you can bank on Calipari having a class that ranks at or near the top in the final rankings.

Missouri

While Kansas is a favorite to finish with the top class, their rival Missouri is also a strong contender. Unlike some of his counterparts, Dennis Gates is full steam ahead on recruiting high school players. The Tigers currently have two top-25 prospects committed, including No. 3-ranked Jason Crowe Jr. and No. 23-ranked Toni Bryant. The Tigers have a top-three recruiting class in America already and could add more talented pieces from their own backyard to take the top spot.